A preliminary formula to predict timing of symptom resolution for collegiate athletes diagnosed with sport concussion

Jacob E. Resch, Cathleen N. Brown, Stephen N. Macciocchi, C. Munro Cullum, Damond Blueitt, Michael S. Ferrara

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

18 Scopus citations


Context: Symptom presentation and recovery after sport concussion (SC) are variable. Empirically based models documenting typical symptom duration would assist health care providers in managing return to play after SC. Objective: To develop a prediction model for SC symptom duration. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Two National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I university laboratories. Patients or Other Participants: Seventy-six (51 male and 25 female) concussed athletes with an average age of 19.5 ± 1.65 years who were evaluated within 24 hours of diagnosis. Intervention(s): Participants completed the Revised Head Injury Scale (HIS-r), Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT), and Sensory Organization Test within 24 hours of SC diagnosis. Main Outcome Measure(s): A stepwise multivariate regression incorporating ImPACT and Sensory Organization Test composites and HIS-r symptom severity-duration was used to predict the number of days athletes reported symptoms after SC. The resulting regression formula was cross-validated using the Stine cross-validation coefficient. Results: The final formula consisted of the HIS-r's selfreported neck pain, drowsiness, tingling, and nervousness duration and ImPACT total symptom severity (R = 0.62, R2 = 39%, R2 adj = 34.2%, P < .001). Approximately 29% (R2 cv = 29%) of the variance associated with total days symptomatic after SC was explained by our preliminary formula when crossvalidated. The current formula correctly identified 76% of participants who recovered within 10 days of injury. Conclusions: Our results suggest that self-reported duration of 4 symptoms during the initial 24 hours after injury along with total symptom severity as measured by ImPACT accounted for a considerable amount of variance associated with days symptomatic after SC in collegiate athletes. Until the formula is cross-validated in a college-aged sample, caution is warranted in using it clinically.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1292-1298
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Athletic Training
Issue number12
StatePublished - Dec 2015


  • Prediction
  • Prolonged
  • Recovery
  • Symptom duration
  • Symptom severity
  • Traumatic brain injuries

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Orthopedics and Sports Medicine
  • Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation


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