Computed tomographic angiography for detecting cerebral aneurysms

Implications of aneurysm size distribution for the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios

James M. Van Gelder, Brian L. Hoh, Christopher S. Ogilvy, Robert A. Solomon, H. Hunt Batjer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

52 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the efficacy of computed tomographic angiography (CTA) for detection of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms after adjustment for their size distributions under various conditions of aneurysm prevalence. METHODS: A systematic review was used to estimate 1) the aneurysm size-specific sensitivity and specificity of CTA, and 2) the size distributions of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms. Probabilistic computer simulation was used to estimate the efficacy of CTA in the detection of aneurysms. RESULTS. The sensitivity of CTA ranged from 53% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-62%) for 2-mm aneurysms to 95% (95% CI, 92-97%) for 7-mm aneurysms. The overall specificity was 98.9% (95% CI, 91.5-99.99%), but there was between-study heterogeneity. The estimated negative likelihood ratios for ruptured, unruptured, and at least 6-mm unruptured aneurysms were 0.081, 0.18, and 0.012, respectively. The positive likelihood ratio for CTA was sensitive to the pretest probability, the size of the positive finding, and the clinical context. With a small pretest probability, the positive likelihood ratio for unruptured aneurysms ranged from 15 for 2-mm aneurysms to 61 for 5-mm aneurysms. The positive likelihood ratio for ruptured aneurysms with an intermediate pretest probability (50%) ranged from 3.9 to 56 for 2- to 5-mm aneurysms. CONCLUSION: Small aneurysms detected on CTA should be investigated further unless there is a high pretest probability of a ruptured aneurysm. During screening for ruptured aneurysms, a negative CTA should be investigated further. During screening for unruptured aneurysms, a negative CTA results in a very low probability of a clinically important aneurysm.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)597-606
Number of pages10
JournalNeurosurgery
Volume53
Issue number3
StatePublished - Sep 1 2003

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Intracranial Aneurysm
Aneurysm
Angiography
Sensitivity and Specificity
Ruptured Aneurysm
Confidence Intervals
Computer Simulation

Keywords

  • Cerebral aneurysm
  • Computed tomographic angiography
  • Computer simulation
  • Probabilistic sensitivity analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Clinical Neurology
  • Surgery

Cite this

Computed tomographic angiography for detecting cerebral aneurysms : Implications of aneurysm size distribution for the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. / Van Gelder, James M.; Hoh, Brian L.; Ogilvy, Christopher S.; Solomon, Robert A.; Batjer, H. Hunt.

In: Neurosurgery, Vol. 53, No. 3, 01.09.2003, p. 597-606.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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title = "Computed tomographic angiography for detecting cerebral aneurysms: Implications of aneurysm size distribution for the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios",
abstract = "OBJECTIVE: This study examined the efficacy of computed tomographic angiography (CTA) for detection of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms after adjustment for their size distributions under various conditions of aneurysm prevalence. METHODS: A systematic review was used to estimate 1) the aneurysm size-specific sensitivity and specificity of CTA, and 2) the size distributions of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms. Probabilistic computer simulation was used to estimate the efficacy of CTA in the detection of aneurysms. RESULTS. The sensitivity of CTA ranged from 53{\%} (95{\%} confidence interval [CI], 44-62{\%}) for 2-mm aneurysms to 95{\%} (95{\%} CI, 92-97{\%}) for 7-mm aneurysms. The overall specificity was 98.9{\%} (95{\%} CI, 91.5-99.99{\%}), but there was between-study heterogeneity. The estimated negative likelihood ratios for ruptured, unruptured, and at least 6-mm unruptured aneurysms were 0.081, 0.18, and 0.012, respectively. The positive likelihood ratio for CTA was sensitive to the pretest probability, the size of the positive finding, and the clinical context. With a small pretest probability, the positive likelihood ratio for unruptured aneurysms ranged from 15 for 2-mm aneurysms to 61 for 5-mm aneurysms. The positive likelihood ratio for ruptured aneurysms with an intermediate pretest probability (50{\%}) ranged from 3.9 to 56 for 2- to 5-mm aneurysms. CONCLUSION: Small aneurysms detected on CTA should be investigated further unless there is a high pretest probability of a ruptured aneurysm. During screening for ruptured aneurysms, a negative CTA should be investigated further. During screening for unruptured aneurysms, a negative CTA results in a very low probability of a clinically important aneurysm.",
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AU - Ogilvy, Christopher S.

AU - Solomon, Robert A.

AU - Batjer, H. Hunt

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N2 - OBJECTIVE: This study examined the efficacy of computed tomographic angiography (CTA) for detection of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms after adjustment for their size distributions under various conditions of aneurysm prevalence. METHODS: A systematic review was used to estimate 1) the aneurysm size-specific sensitivity and specificity of CTA, and 2) the size distributions of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms. Probabilistic computer simulation was used to estimate the efficacy of CTA in the detection of aneurysms. RESULTS. The sensitivity of CTA ranged from 53% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-62%) for 2-mm aneurysms to 95% (95% CI, 92-97%) for 7-mm aneurysms. The overall specificity was 98.9% (95% CI, 91.5-99.99%), but there was between-study heterogeneity. The estimated negative likelihood ratios for ruptured, unruptured, and at least 6-mm unruptured aneurysms were 0.081, 0.18, and 0.012, respectively. The positive likelihood ratio for CTA was sensitive to the pretest probability, the size of the positive finding, and the clinical context. With a small pretest probability, the positive likelihood ratio for unruptured aneurysms ranged from 15 for 2-mm aneurysms to 61 for 5-mm aneurysms. The positive likelihood ratio for ruptured aneurysms with an intermediate pretest probability (50%) ranged from 3.9 to 56 for 2- to 5-mm aneurysms. CONCLUSION: Small aneurysms detected on CTA should be investigated further unless there is a high pretest probability of a ruptured aneurysm. During screening for ruptured aneurysms, a negative CTA should be investigated further. During screening for unruptured aneurysms, a negative CTA results in a very low probability of a clinically important aneurysm.

AB - OBJECTIVE: This study examined the efficacy of computed tomographic angiography (CTA) for detection of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms after adjustment for their size distributions under various conditions of aneurysm prevalence. METHODS: A systematic review was used to estimate 1) the aneurysm size-specific sensitivity and specificity of CTA, and 2) the size distributions of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms. Probabilistic computer simulation was used to estimate the efficacy of CTA in the detection of aneurysms. RESULTS. The sensitivity of CTA ranged from 53% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44-62%) for 2-mm aneurysms to 95% (95% CI, 92-97%) for 7-mm aneurysms. The overall specificity was 98.9% (95% CI, 91.5-99.99%), but there was between-study heterogeneity. The estimated negative likelihood ratios for ruptured, unruptured, and at least 6-mm unruptured aneurysms were 0.081, 0.18, and 0.012, respectively. The positive likelihood ratio for CTA was sensitive to the pretest probability, the size of the positive finding, and the clinical context. With a small pretest probability, the positive likelihood ratio for unruptured aneurysms ranged from 15 for 2-mm aneurysms to 61 for 5-mm aneurysms. The positive likelihood ratio for ruptured aneurysms with an intermediate pretest probability (50%) ranged from 3.9 to 56 for 2- to 5-mm aneurysms. CONCLUSION: Small aneurysms detected on CTA should be investigated further unless there is a high pretest probability of a ruptured aneurysm. During screening for ruptured aneurysms, a negative CTA should be investigated further. During screening for unruptured aneurysms, a negative CTA results in a very low probability of a clinically important aneurysm.

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KW - Computed tomographic angiography

KW - Computer simulation

KW - Probabilistic sensitivity analysis

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