Development and validation of a risk stratification index to predict death in gastroschisis

Meghan A. Arnold, David C. Chang, Rosemary Nabaweesi, Paul M. Colombani, Anne C. Fischer, Henry T. Lau, Fizan Abdullah

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

33 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Gastroschisis is a rare congenital anomaly, the improved surgical management of which has contributed to a survival rate greater than 90%. Development of an accurate risk stratification system to help identify the subset of patients at greatest risk for death may lead to further improvements in outcome. Methods: Infants with gastroschisis were identified from 16 years of the National Inpatient Sample database and the Kids' Inpatient Database using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification procedure code 54.71 (repair of gastroschisis) and an age of less than 8 days. Logistic regression analysis determined which coexisting diagnoses were significantly associated with death. Odds ratios from the logistic regression model were simplified and used as weighting factors to create an additive index. The index was validated using the 2003 Kids' Inpatient Database data set. Results: Intestinal atresia, necrotizing enterocolitis, rare cardiac anomalies, and lung hypoplasia were strongly associated with death and used to create a scoring system with a potential range of 0 to 10. Every point increase on the scale of gastroschisis risk stratification index is associated with a 95% relative increase in the likelihood of death. Conclusion: We have developed a novel index, which is superior to previous classification systems in identifying patients with gastroschisis who are at highest risk for death.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)950-956
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Pediatric Surgery
Volume42
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2007

Fingerprint

Gastroschisis
Inpatients
Logistic Models
Databases
Intestinal Atresia
Necrotizing Enterocolitis
International Classification of Diseases
Survival Rate
Odds Ratio
Regression Analysis
Lung

Keywords

  • Abdominal wall defect
  • Gastroschisis
  • Pediatric surgery
  • Risk stratification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery

Cite this

Arnold, M. A., Chang, D. C., Nabaweesi, R., Colombani, P. M., Fischer, A. C., Lau, H. T., & Abdullah, F. (2007). Development and validation of a risk stratification index to predict death in gastroschisis. Journal of Pediatric Surgery, 42(6), 950-956. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2007.01.028

Development and validation of a risk stratification index to predict death in gastroschisis. / Arnold, Meghan A.; Chang, David C.; Nabaweesi, Rosemary; Colombani, Paul M.; Fischer, Anne C.; Lau, Henry T.; Abdullah, Fizan.

In: Journal of Pediatric Surgery, Vol. 42, No. 6, 06.2007, p. 950-956.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Arnold, MA, Chang, DC, Nabaweesi, R, Colombani, PM, Fischer, AC, Lau, HT & Abdullah, F 2007, 'Development and validation of a risk stratification index to predict death in gastroschisis', Journal of Pediatric Surgery, vol. 42, no. 6, pp. 950-956. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2007.01.028
Arnold, Meghan A. ; Chang, David C. ; Nabaweesi, Rosemary ; Colombani, Paul M. ; Fischer, Anne C. ; Lau, Henry T. ; Abdullah, Fizan. / Development and validation of a risk stratification index to predict death in gastroschisis. In: Journal of Pediatric Surgery. 2007 ; Vol. 42, No. 6. pp. 950-956.
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