Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States: A policy statement from the American Heart Association

Paul A. Heidenreich, Justin G. Trogdon, Olga A. Khavjou, Javed Butler, Kathleen Dracup, Michael D. Ezekowitz, Eric Andrew Finkelstein, Yuling Hong, S. Claiborne Johnston, Amit Khera, Donald M. Lloyd-Jones, Sue A. Nelson, Graham Nichol, Diane Orenstein, Peter W F Wilson, Y. Joseph Woo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1840 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results- To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%. Conclusions- These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)933-944
Number of pages12
JournalCirculation
Volume123
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2011

Fingerprint

Cardiovascular Diseases
Costs and Cost Analysis
Cost of Illness
Health Expenditures
Population
Coronary Disease
Cause of Death
Heart Failure
Stroke
Hypertension

Keywords

  • AHA Scientific Statements
  • cardiovascular diseases
  • cost analysis
  • forecasting
  • US costs

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physiology (medical)
  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Cite this

Heidenreich, P. A., Trogdon, J. G., Khavjou, O. A., Butler, J., Dracup, K., Ezekowitz, M. D., ... Woo, Y. J. (2011). Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States: A policy statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation, 123(8), 933-944. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIR.0b013e31820a55f5

Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States : A policy statement from the American Heart Association. / Heidenreich, Paul A.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Khavjou, Olga A.; Butler, Javed; Dracup, Kathleen; Ezekowitz, Michael D.; Finkelstein, Eric Andrew; Hong, Yuling; Johnston, S. Claiborne; Khera, Amit; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Nelson, Sue A.; Nichol, Graham; Orenstein, Diane; Wilson, Peter W F; Woo, Y. Joseph.

In: Circulation, Vol. 123, No. 8, 01.03.2011, p. 933-944.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Heidenreich, PA, Trogdon, JG, Khavjou, OA, Butler, J, Dracup, K, Ezekowitz, MD, Finkelstein, EA, Hong, Y, Johnston, SC, Khera, A, Lloyd-Jones, DM, Nelson, SA, Nichol, G, Orenstein, D, Wilson, PWF & Woo, YJ 2011, 'Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States: A policy statement from the American Heart Association', Circulation, vol. 123, no. 8, pp. 933-944. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIR.0b013e31820a55f5
Heidenreich, Paul A. ; Trogdon, Justin G. ; Khavjou, Olga A. ; Butler, Javed ; Dracup, Kathleen ; Ezekowitz, Michael D. ; Finkelstein, Eric Andrew ; Hong, Yuling ; Johnston, S. Claiborne ; Khera, Amit ; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M. ; Nelson, Sue A. ; Nichol, Graham ; Orenstein, Diane ; Wilson, Peter W F ; Woo, Y. Joseph. / Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States : A policy statement from the American Heart Association. In: Circulation. 2011 ; Vol. 123, No. 8. pp. 933-944.
@article{603c3f17a9c047b19989a2be9b35d385,
title = "Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States: A policy statement from the American Heart Association",
abstract = "Background- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17{\%} of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results- To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5{\%} of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61{\%}. Conclusions- These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.",
keywords = "AHA Scientific Statements, cardiovascular diseases, cost analysis, forecasting, US costs",
author = "Heidenreich, {Paul A.} and Trogdon, {Justin G.} and Khavjou, {Olga A.} and Javed Butler and Kathleen Dracup and Ezekowitz, {Michael D.} and Finkelstein, {Eric Andrew} and Yuling Hong and Johnston, {S. Claiborne} and Amit Khera and Lloyd-Jones, {Donald M.} and Nelson, {Sue A.} and Graham Nichol and Diane Orenstein and Wilson, {Peter W F} and Woo, {Y. Joseph}",
year = "2011",
month = "3",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1161/CIR.0b013e31820a55f5",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "123",
pages = "933--944",
journal = "Circulation",
issn = "0009-7322",
publisher = "Lippincott Williams and Wilkins",
number = "8",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States

T2 - A policy statement from the American Heart Association

AU - Heidenreich, Paul A.

AU - Trogdon, Justin G.

AU - Khavjou, Olga A.

AU - Butler, Javed

AU - Dracup, Kathleen

AU - Ezekowitz, Michael D.

AU - Finkelstein, Eric Andrew

AU - Hong, Yuling

AU - Johnston, S. Claiborne

AU - Khera, Amit

AU - Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

AU - Nelson, Sue A.

AU - Nichol, Graham

AU - Orenstein, Diane

AU - Wilson, Peter W F

AU - Woo, Y. Joseph

PY - 2011/3/1

Y1 - 2011/3/1

N2 - Background- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results- To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%. Conclusions- These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.

AB - Background- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results- To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%. Conclusions- These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.

KW - AHA Scientific Statements

KW - cardiovascular diseases

KW - cost analysis

KW - forecasting

KW - US costs

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79952444246&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79952444246&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1161/CIR.0b013e31820a55f5

DO - 10.1161/CIR.0b013e31820a55f5

M3 - Article

C2 - 21262990

AN - SCOPUS:79952444246

VL - 123

SP - 933

EP - 944

JO - Circulation

JF - Circulation

SN - 0009-7322

IS - 8

ER -