Geographic-Level Association of Contemporary Changes in Localized and Metastatic Prostate Cancer Incidence in the Era of Decreasing PSA Screening

Decreased prostate-specific antigen screening since 2008 has generated much concern, including report of recent increase in metastatic prostate cancer incidence among older men. Although increased metastatic disease was temporally proceeded by decreased screening and decreased localized prostate cancer at diagnosis, it is unclear whether the 2 trends are geographically connected. We therefore used the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to assess geographic-specific associations between changes in localized (2008-2011) and later changes in metastatic prostate cancer incidence (2012-2015). We examined trends from 200 health-care service areas (HSAs) within SEER 18 registries. While on average for each HSA, localized incidence decreased by 27.4 and metastatic incidence increased by 2.3 per 100 000 men per year, individual HSA-level changes in localized incidence did not correlate with later changes in metastatic disease. Decreased detection of localized disease may not fully explain the recent increase in metastatic disease at diagnosis.