BACKGROUND: Endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) is highly effective in treating dysplastic Barrett’s esophagus (BE). Current surveillance intervals after complete remission of intestinal metaplasia (CRIM) are based on expert opinion. We performed a meta-analysis to compare BE detection in the first year to the subsequent ones Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials through 1 August 2017 for studies reporting IM and neoplasia detection after CRIM. Pooled incidence rate (IR) of IM detection was calculated for each year after CRIM. We compared IM, dysplasia, and high grade dysplasia (HGD)/esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) detection in the first year after CRIM to the years after. Results: Twenty two studies were included involving 1973 patients with follow-up of 5176 patient-years. IM detection IR per patient-year in the 1st year was 12% (95% CI: 8–17%), in the 2nd year 7% (95% CI: 4–11%), and in the 3rd year 3% (95% CI: 1–7%). IM detection rate in the first year was significantly higher compared to the years after (relative risk (RR) 1.8 (95% CI: 1.29–2.49)). Dysplasia detection IR in the first year after achieving CRIM was 3% per patient-year (95% CI: 2–5%). Dysplasia detection IR after the first year was 1% (95% CI: 1–2%) and significantly higher in the first year compared to the years after (RR: 1.92 (95% CI: 1.32–2.8). HGD/EAC detection was 1 %/patient-year (95% CI: 0–2%) in the first year after CRIM compared to 0%/patient-year (95% CI: 0–1%) in subsequent years. HGD/EAC IR was higher in the first year (RR: 1.58 (95% CI: 0.94–2.65)). Conclusion: Neoplasia detection after successful treatment of BE appears more common within the first year of surveillance. This appears to be due to incompletely treated prevalent rather than recurrent disease. More intensive surveillance in the first year following CRIM is warranted.
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