TY - JOUR
T1 - Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections
T2 - a systematic review
AU - Lessler, Justin
AU - Reich, Nicholas G.
AU - Brookmeyer, Ron
AU - Perl, Trish M.
AU - Nelson, Kenrad E.
AU - Cummings, Derek AT
N1 - Funding Information:
DATC's work on this project was funded by a grant from the NIH (U01-GM070708) and he holds a Career Award at the Scientific Interface from the Burroughs Welcome Fund. JL, NGR, and RB were funded by a grant from the US Department of Homeland Security (N00014-06-1-0991). TP was funded by a grant from the US Centers for Disease Control (HK00014). We thank Daniel Landau of postalmodern.com , USA, for freely providing and maintaining a library and version control system, and Jennifer Anderson, of the Carnegie Institution of Washington, USA, for her editorial assistance.
PY - 2009/5
Y1 - 2009/5
N2 - Knowledge of the incubation period is essential in the investigation and control of infectious disease, but statements of incubation period are often poorly referenced, inconsistent, or based on limited data. In a systematic review of the literature on nine respiratory viral infections of public-health importance, we identified 436 articles with statements of incubation period and 38 with data for pooled analysis. We fitted a log-normal distribution to pooled data and found the median incubation period to be 5·6 days (95% CI 4·8-6·3) for adenovirus, 3·2 days (95% CI 2·8-3·7) for human coronavirus, 4·0 days (95% CI 3·6-4·4) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 1·4 days (95% CI 1·3-1·5) for influenza A, 0·6 days (95% CI 0·5-0·6) for influenza B, 12·5 days (95% CI 11·8-13·3) for measles, 2·6 days (95% CI 2·1-3·1) for parainfluenza, 4·4 days (95% CI 3·9-4·9) for respiratory syncytial virus, and 1·9 days (95% CI 1·4-2·4) for rhinovirus. When using the incubation period, it is important to consider its full distribution: the right tail for quarantine policy, the central regions for likely times and sources of infection, and the full distribution for models used in pandemic planning. Our estimates combine published data to give the detail necessary for these and other applications.
AB - Knowledge of the incubation period is essential in the investigation and control of infectious disease, but statements of incubation period are often poorly referenced, inconsistent, or based on limited data. In a systematic review of the literature on nine respiratory viral infections of public-health importance, we identified 436 articles with statements of incubation period and 38 with data for pooled analysis. We fitted a log-normal distribution to pooled data and found the median incubation period to be 5·6 days (95% CI 4·8-6·3) for adenovirus, 3·2 days (95% CI 2·8-3·7) for human coronavirus, 4·0 days (95% CI 3·6-4·4) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 1·4 days (95% CI 1·3-1·5) for influenza A, 0·6 days (95% CI 0·5-0·6) for influenza B, 12·5 days (95% CI 11·8-13·3) for measles, 2·6 days (95% CI 2·1-3·1) for parainfluenza, 4·4 days (95% CI 3·9-4·9) for respiratory syncytial virus, and 1·9 days (95% CI 1·4-2·4) for rhinovirus. When using the incubation period, it is important to consider its full distribution: the right tail for quarantine policy, the central regions for likely times and sources of infection, and the full distribution for models used in pandemic planning. Our estimates combine published data to give the detail necessary for these and other applications.
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U2 - 10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70069-6
DO - 10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70069-6
M3 - Review article
C2 - 19393959
AN - SCOPUS:64849097031
SN - 1473-3099
VL - 9
SP - 291
EP - 300
JO - The Lancet Infectious Diseases
JF - The Lancet Infectious Diseases
IS - 5
ER -