Objectives: Serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening has led to clinical and pathologic stage migration. We examined patients treated by radical prostatectomy between 1987 and 2005 to establish temporal trends in pathologic stage migration as assessed by the proportion of patients with nonorgan-confined disease (NOCD). Methods: Step-sectioned prostatectomy specimens of 3364 consecutively treated patients were evaluated by year. The data were modeled by joinpoint regression, and the optimal model was selected by a Bayesian information criterion. Results: From 1987 to 2005, the population underwent pathologic stage migration toward more organ-confined tumors (P <0.0001). The proportion of patients with NOCD exhibited changes in trend at 1992 and 1995. After widespread implementation of PSA screening, stage migration accelerated between 1992 and 1995. Since 1995, stage migration has substantially slowed but continues at an annual change of -4.2% (P = 0.0027). Conclusions: The presence of NOCD at prostatectomy has declined substantially in the PSA era. Recent slowing in this trend suggests a diminishing effect of PSA screening on pathologic stage migration.
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