Objective: To evaluate precystectomy prediction of pT and pN stages at cystectomy. Methods: Multivariate logistic regression analyses modelled variables of 726 evaluable patients treated with radical cystectomy and bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy. The first set of models predicted pT3-4 stage at cystectomy, and the second set predicted pN1-3 stages at cystectomy. Transurethral resection (TUR) predictors consisted of 2002 T stage, 1973 WHO tumour grade, presence of carcinoma in situ, age, gender, and delivery of neo-adjuvant chemotherapy. The area under the ROC curve quantified nomogram accuracy. Two hundred bootstrap resamples were used to reduce overfit bias. Results: At TUR, 11% of patients were staged as pT3-4 versus 42% at cystectomy. Lymph node metastases were found in 24% of patients at cystectomy (pN1-3). The multivariate pT3-4 nomogram was 75.7% accurate versus 71.4% for TUR T stage. The multivariate pN1-3 nomogram was 63.1% accurate versus 61.0% for TUR T stage. Conclusion: Multivariate nomograms are not perfect, but they do predict more accurately than TUR T stage alone.
- Bladder cancer
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