Radiologically isolated syndrome

5-year risk for an initial clinical event

Darin T. Okuda, Aksel Siva, Orhun Kantarci, Matilde Inglese, Ilana Katz, Melih Tutuncu, B. Mark Keegan, Stacy Donlon, Le H. Hua, Angela Vidal-Jordana, Xavier Montalban, Alex Rovira, Mar Tintoré, Maria Pia Amato, Bruno Brochet, Jérôme De Seze, David Brassat, Patrick Vermersch, Nicola De Stefano, Maria Pia Sormani & 2 others Daniel Pelletier, Christine Lebrun

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

129 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objective: To report the 5-year risk and to identify risk factors for the development of a seminal acute or progressive clinical event in a multi-national cohort of asymptomatic subjects meeting 2009 RIS Criteria. Methods: Retrospectively identified RIS subjects from 22 databases within 5 countries were evaluated. Time to the first clinical event related to demyelination (acute or 12-month progression of neurological deficits) was compared across different groups by univariate and multivariate analyses utilizing a Cox regression model. Results: Data were available in 451 RIS subjects (F: 354 (78.5%)). The mean age at from the time of the first brain MRI revealing anomalies suggestive of MS was 37.2 years (y) (median: 37.1 y, range: 11-74 y) with mean clinical follow-up time of 4.4 y (median: 2.8 y, range: 0.01-21.1 y). Clinical events were identified in 34% (standard error = 3%) of individuals within a 5-year period from the first brain MRI study. Of those who developed symptoms, 9.6% fulfilled criteria for primary progressive MS. In the multivariate model, age [hazard ratio (HR): 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96-0.99); p = 0.03], sex (male) [HR: 1.93 (1.24-2.99); p = 0.004], and lesions within the cervical or thoracic spinal cord [HR: 3.08 (2.06-4.62); p = <0.001] were identified as significant predictors for the development of a first clinical event. Interpretation: These data provide supportive evidence that ameaningful number of RIS subjects evolve to a first clinical symptom. An age <37 y, male sex, and spinal cord involvement appear to be the most important independent predictors of symptom onset.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere90509
JournalPLoS One
Volume9
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 5 2014

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signs and symptoms (animals and humans)
Hazards
spinal cord
Magnetic resonance imaging
Brain
Spinal Cord
brain
gender
Demyelinating Diseases
chest
Proportional Hazards Models
lesions (animal)
risk factors
Thorax
Multivariate Analysis
Databases
methodology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Okuda, D. T., Siva, A., Kantarci, O., Inglese, M., Katz, I., Tutuncu, M., ... Lebrun, C. (2014). Radiologically isolated syndrome: 5-year risk for an initial clinical event. PLoS One, 9(3), [e90509]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0090509

Radiologically isolated syndrome : 5-year risk for an initial clinical event. / Okuda, Darin T.; Siva, Aksel; Kantarci, Orhun; Inglese, Matilde; Katz, Ilana; Tutuncu, Melih; Keegan, B. Mark; Donlon, Stacy; Hua, Le H.; Vidal-Jordana, Angela; Montalban, Xavier; Rovira, Alex; Tintoré, Mar; Amato, Maria Pia; Brochet, Bruno; De Seze, Jérôme; Brassat, David; Vermersch, Patrick; De Stefano, Nicola; Sormani, Maria Pia; Pelletier, Daniel; Lebrun, Christine.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 9, No. 3, e90509, 05.03.2014.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Okuda, DT, Siva, A, Kantarci, O, Inglese, M, Katz, I, Tutuncu, M, Keegan, BM, Donlon, S, Hua, LH, Vidal-Jordana, A, Montalban, X, Rovira, A, Tintoré, M, Amato, MP, Brochet, B, De Seze, J, Brassat, D, Vermersch, P, De Stefano, N, Sormani, MP, Pelletier, D & Lebrun, C 2014, 'Radiologically isolated syndrome: 5-year risk for an initial clinical event', PLoS One, vol. 9, no. 3, e90509. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0090509
Okuda, Darin T. ; Siva, Aksel ; Kantarci, Orhun ; Inglese, Matilde ; Katz, Ilana ; Tutuncu, Melih ; Keegan, B. Mark ; Donlon, Stacy ; Hua, Le H. ; Vidal-Jordana, Angela ; Montalban, Xavier ; Rovira, Alex ; Tintoré, Mar ; Amato, Maria Pia ; Brochet, Bruno ; De Seze, Jérôme ; Brassat, David ; Vermersch, Patrick ; De Stefano, Nicola ; Sormani, Maria Pia ; Pelletier, Daniel ; Lebrun, Christine. / Radiologically isolated syndrome : 5-year risk for an initial clinical event. In: PLoS One. 2014 ; Vol. 9, No. 3.
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AU - Katz, Ilana

AU - Tutuncu, Melih

AU - Keegan, B. Mark

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