Relative Prognostic Importance and Optimal Levels of Risk Factors for Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

Aidin Rawshani, Araz Rawshani, Naveed Sattar, Stefan Franzén, Darren K. Mcguire, Björn Eliasson, Ann Marie Svensson, Björn Zethelius, Mervete Miftaraj, Annika Rosengren, Soffia Gudbjörnsdottir

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: The strength of association and optimal levels for risk factors related to excess risk of death and cardiovascular outcomes in type 1 diabetes mellitus have been sparsely studied. Methods: In a national observational cohort study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1998 to 2014, we assessed relative prognostic importance of 17 risk factors for death and cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus. We used Cox regression and machine learning analyses. In addition, we examined optimal cut point levels for glycohemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus were followed up until death or study end on December 31, 2013. The primary outcomes were death resulting from all causes, fatal/nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, fatal/nonfatal stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure. Results: Of 32 611 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, 1809 (5.5%) died during follow-up over 10.4 years. The strongest predictors for death and cardiovascular outcomes were glycohemoglobin, albuminuria, duration of diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Glycohemoglobin displayed ≈2% higher risk for each 1-mmol/mol increase (equating to ≈22% per 1% glycohemoglobin difference), whereas low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with 35% to 50% greater risk for each 1-mmol/L increase. Microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria was associated with 2 to 4 times greater risk for cardiovascular complications and death. Glycohemoglobin <53 mmol/mol (7.0%), systolic blood pressure <140 mm Hg, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <2.5 mmol/L were associated with significantly lower risk for outcomes observed. Conclusions: Glycohemoglobin, albuminuria, duration of diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol appear to be the most important predictors for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Lower levels for glycohemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol than contemporary guideline target levels appear to be associated with significantly lower risk for outcomes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1900-1912
Number of pages13
JournalCirculation
Volume139
Issue number16
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 16 2019

Keywords

  • Cardiovascular disease
  • cerebrovascular disorders
  • diabetes mellitus
  • glycated hemoglobin A
  • heart failure
  • mortality
  • risk factors
  • type 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
  • Physiology (medical)

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    Rawshani, A., Rawshani, A., Sattar, N., Franzén, S., Mcguire, D. K., Eliasson, B., Svensson, A. M., Zethelius, B., Miftaraj, M., Rosengren, A., & Gudbjörnsdottir, S. (2019). Relative Prognostic Importance and Optimal Levels of Risk Factors for Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus. Circulation, 139(16), 1900-1912. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.118.037454