The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence: Estimates from a disease simulation model

Chung Yin Kong, Kevin J. Nattinger, Tristan J. Hayeck, Zehra B. Omer, Y. Claire Wang, Stuart J. Spechler, Pamela M. McMahon, G. Scott Gazelle, Chin Hur

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: The United States has experienced an alarming and unexplained increase in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) since the 1970s. A concurrent increase in obesity has led some to suggest a relationship between the two trends. We explore the extent of this relationship. Methods: Using a previously validated disease simulation model of white males in the United States, we estimated EAC incidence 1973 to 2005 given constant obesity prevalence and low population progression rates consistent with the early 1970s. Introducing only the observed, rising obesity prevalence, we calculated the incremental incidence caused by obesity. We compared these with EAC incidence data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry to determine obesity's contribution to the rise therein. Incidences were converted to absolute numbers of cases using U.S. population data. Results: Using constant obesity prevalence, we projected a total of 30,555 EAC cases cumulatively over 1973 to 2005 and 1,151 in 2005 alone. Incorporating the observed obesity trend resulted in 35,767 cumulative EACs and 1,608 in 2005. Estimates derived from SEER data showed 111,223 cumulative and 7,173 cases in 2005. We conclude that the rise in obesity accounted for 6.5% of the increase in EAC cases that occurred from 1973 to 2005 and 7.6% in the year 2005. Conclusion: Using published OR for EAC among obese individuals, we found that only a small percentage of the rise in EAC incidence is attributable to secular trends in obesity. Impact: Other factors, alone and in combination, should be explored as causes of the EAC epidemic.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2450-2456
Number of pages7
JournalCancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention
Volume20
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2011

Fingerprint

Adenocarcinoma
Obesity
Incidence
Epidemiology
National Cancer Institute (U.S.)
Population
Registries

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Oncology

Cite this

The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence : Estimates from a disease simulation model. / Kong, Chung Yin; Nattinger, Kevin J.; Hayeck, Tristan J.; Omer, Zehra B.; Wang, Y. Claire; Spechler, Stuart J.; McMahon, Pamela M.; Gazelle, G. Scott; Hur, Chin.

In: Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention, Vol. 20, No. 11, 11.2011, p. 2450-2456.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Kong, Chung Yin ; Nattinger, Kevin J. ; Hayeck, Tristan J. ; Omer, Zehra B. ; Wang, Y. Claire ; Spechler, Stuart J. ; McMahon, Pamela M. ; Gazelle, G. Scott ; Hur, Chin. / The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence : Estimates from a disease simulation model. In: Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention. 2011 ; Vol. 20, No. 11. pp. 2450-2456.
@article{3acb96018e5a456880a83fc51fe1199f,
title = "The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence: Estimates from a disease simulation model",
abstract = "Background: The United States has experienced an alarming and unexplained increase in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) since the 1970s. A concurrent increase in obesity has led some to suggest a relationship between the two trends. We explore the extent of this relationship. Methods: Using a previously validated disease simulation model of white males in the United States, we estimated EAC incidence 1973 to 2005 given constant obesity prevalence and low population progression rates consistent with the early 1970s. Introducing only the observed, rising obesity prevalence, we calculated the incremental incidence caused by obesity. We compared these with EAC incidence data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry to determine obesity's contribution to the rise therein. Incidences were converted to absolute numbers of cases using U.S. population data. Results: Using constant obesity prevalence, we projected a total of 30,555 EAC cases cumulatively over 1973 to 2005 and 1,151 in 2005 alone. Incorporating the observed obesity trend resulted in 35,767 cumulative EACs and 1,608 in 2005. Estimates derived from SEER data showed 111,223 cumulative and 7,173 cases in 2005. We conclude that the rise in obesity accounted for 6.5{\%} of the increase in EAC cases that occurred from 1973 to 2005 and 7.6{\%} in the year 2005. Conclusion: Using published OR for EAC among obese individuals, we found that only a small percentage of the rise in EAC incidence is attributable to secular trends in obesity. Impact: Other factors, alone and in combination, should be explored as causes of the EAC epidemic.",
author = "Kong, {Chung Yin} and Nattinger, {Kevin J.} and Hayeck, {Tristan J.} and Omer, {Zehra B.} and Wang, {Y. Claire} and Spechler, {Stuart J.} and McMahon, {Pamela M.} and Gazelle, {G. Scott} and Chin Hur",
year = "2011",
month = "11",
doi = "10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-11-0547",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "20",
pages = "2450--2456",
journal = "Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention",
issn = "1055-9965",
publisher = "American Association for Cancer Research Inc.",
number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence

T2 - Estimates from a disease simulation model

AU - Kong, Chung Yin

AU - Nattinger, Kevin J.

AU - Hayeck, Tristan J.

AU - Omer, Zehra B.

AU - Wang, Y. Claire

AU - Spechler, Stuart J.

AU - McMahon, Pamela M.

AU - Gazelle, G. Scott

AU - Hur, Chin

PY - 2011/11

Y1 - 2011/11

N2 - Background: The United States has experienced an alarming and unexplained increase in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) since the 1970s. A concurrent increase in obesity has led some to suggest a relationship between the two trends. We explore the extent of this relationship. Methods: Using a previously validated disease simulation model of white males in the United States, we estimated EAC incidence 1973 to 2005 given constant obesity prevalence and low population progression rates consistent with the early 1970s. Introducing only the observed, rising obesity prevalence, we calculated the incremental incidence caused by obesity. We compared these with EAC incidence data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry to determine obesity's contribution to the rise therein. Incidences were converted to absolute numbers of cases using U.S. population data. Results: Using constant obesity prevalence, we projected a total of 30,555 EAC cases cumulatively over 1973 to 2005 and 1,151 in 2005 alone. Incorporating the observed obesity trend resulted in 35,767 cumulative EACs and 1,608 in 2005. Estimates derived from SEER data showed 111,223 cumulative and 7,173 cases in 2005. We conclude that the rise in obesity accounted for 6.5% of the increase in EAC cases that occurred from 1973 to 2005 and 7.6% in the year 2005. Conclusion: Using published OR for EAC among obese individuals, we found that only a small percentage of the rise in EAC incidence is attributable to secular trends in obesity. Impact: Other factors, alone and in combination, should be explored as causes of the EAC epidemic.

AB - Background: The United States has experienced an alarming and unexplained increase in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) since the 1970s. A concurrent increase in obesity has led some to suggest a relationship between the two trends. We explore the extent of this relationship. Methods: Using a previously validated disease simulation model of white males in the United States, we estimated EAC incidence 1973 to 2005 given constant obesity prevalence and low population progression rates consistent with the early 1970s. Introducing only the observed, rising obesity prevalence, we calculated the incremental incidence caused by obesity. We compared these with EAC incidence data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry to determine obesity's contribution to the rise therein. Incidences were converted to absolute numbers of cases using U.S. population data. Results: Using constant obesity prevalence, we projected a total of 30,555 EAC cases cumulatively over 1973 to 2005 and 1,151 in 2005 alone. Incorporating the observed obesity trend resulted in 35,767 cumulative EACs and 1,608 in 2005. Estimates derived from SEER data showed 111,223 cumulative and 7,173 cases in 2005. We conclude that the rise in obesity accounted for 6.5% of the increase in EAC cases that occurred from 1973 to 2005 and 7.6% in the year 2005. Conclusion: Using published OR for EAC among obese individuals, we found that only a small percentage of the rise in EAC incidence is attributable to secular trends in obesity. Impact: Other factors, alone and in combination, should be explored as causes of the EAC epidemic.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=81155154323&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=81155154323&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-11-0547

DO - 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-11-0547

M3 - Article

C2 - 21930957

AN - SCOPUS:81155154323

VL - 20

SP - 2450

EP - 2456

JO - Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention

JF - Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention

SN - 1055-9965

IS - 11

ER -