TIMI risk score for ST-elevation myocardial infarction: A convenient, bedside, clinical score for risk assessment at presentation: An Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial substudy

David A. Morrow, Elliott M. Antman, Andrew Charlesworth, Richard Cairns, Sabina A. Murphy, James A de Lemos, Robert P. Giugliano, Carolyn H. McCabe, Eugene Braunwald

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

951 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background - Considerable variability in mortality risk exists among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Complex multivariable models identify independent predictors and quantify their relative contribution to mortality risk but are too cumbersome to be readily applied in clinical practice. Methods and Results - We developed and evaluated a convenient bedside clinical risk score for predicting 30-day mortality at presentation of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI was created as the simple arithmetic sum of independent predictors of mortality weighted according to the adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression analysis in the Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial (n=14 114). Mean 30-day mortality was 6.7%. Ten baseline variables, accounting for 97% of the predictive capacity of the multivariate model, constituted the TIMI risk score. The risk score showed a >40-fold graded increase in mortality, with scores ranging from 0 to >8 (P<0.0001); mortality was <1% among patients with a score of 0. The prognostic discriminatory capacity of the TIMI risk score was comparable to the full multivariable model (c statistic 0.779 versus 0.784). The prognostic performance of the risk score was stable over multiple time points (1 to 365 days). External validation in the TIMI 9 trial showed similar prognostic capacity (c statistic 0.746). Conclusions - The TIMI risk score for STEMI captures the majority of prognostic information offered by a full logistic regression model but is more readily used at the bedside. This risk assessment tool is likely to be clinically useful in the triage and management of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2031-2037
Number of pages7
JournalCirculation
Volume102
Issue number17
StatePublished - Oct 24 2000

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Myocardium
Myocardial Infarction
Mortality
Therapeutics
Logistic Models
ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction
Triage
Odds Ratio
Regression Analysis

Keywords

  • Coronary disease
  • Mortality
  • Myocardial infarction
  • Prognosis
  • Risk factors

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physiology
  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Cite this

TIMI risk score for ST-elevation myocardial infarction : A convenient, bedside, clinical score for risk assessment at presentation: An Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial substudy. / Morrow, David A.; Antman, Elliott M.; Charlesworth, Andrew; Cairns, Richard; Murphy, Sabina A.; de Lemos, James A; Giugliano, Robert P.; McCabe, Carolyn H.; Braunwald, Eugene.

In: Circulation, Vol. 102, No. 17, 24.10.2000, p. 2031-2037.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Morrow, David A. ; Antman, Elliott M. ; Charlesworth, Andrew ; Cairns, Richard ; Murphy, Sabina A. ; de Lemos, James A ; Giugliano, Robert P. ; McCabe, Carolyn H. ; Braunwald, Eugene. / TIMI risk score for ST-elevation myocardial infarction : A convenient, bedside, clinical score for risk assessment at presentation: An Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial substudy. In: Circulation. 2000 ; Vol. 102, No. 17. pp. 2031-2037.
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abstract = "Background - Considerable variability in mortality risk exists among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Complex multivariable models identify independent predictors and quantify their relative contribution to mortality risk but are too cumbersome to be readily applied in clinical practice. Methods and Results - We developed and evaluated a convenient bedside clinical risk score for predicting 30-day mortality at presentation of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI was created as the simple arithmetic sum of independent predictors of mortality weighted according to the adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression analysis in the Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial (n=14 114). Mean 30-day mortality was 6.7{\%}. Ten baseline variables, accounting for 97{\%} of the predictive capacity of the multivariate model, constituted the TIMI risk score. The risk score showed a >40-fold graded increase in mortality, with scores ranging from 0 to >8 (P<0.0001); mortality was <1{\%} among patients with a score of 0. The prognostic discriminatory capacity of the TIMI risk score was comparable to the full multivariable model (c statistic 0.779 versus 0.784). The prognostic performance of the risk score was stable over multiple time points (1 to 365 days). External validation in the TIMI 9 trial showed similar prognostic capacity (c statistic 0.746). Conclusions - The TIMI risk score for STEMI captures the majority of prognostic information offered by a full logistic regression model but is more readily used at the bedside. This risk assessment tool is likely to be clinically useful in the triage and management of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI.",
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T1 - TIMI risk score for ST-elevation myocardial infarction

T2 - A convenient, bedside, clinical score for risk assessment at presentation: An Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial substudy

AU - Morrow, David A.

AU - Antman, Elliott M.

AU - Charlesworth, Andrew

AU - Cairns, Richard

AU - Murphy, Sabina A.

AU - de Lemos, James A

AU - Giugliano, Robert P.

AU - McCabe, Carolyn H.

AU - Braunwald, Eugene

PY - 2000/10/24

Y1 - 2000/10/24

N2 - Background - Considerable variability in mortality risk exists among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Complex multivariable models identify independent predictors and quantify their relative contribution to mortality risk but are too cumbersome to be readily applied in clinical practice. Methods and Results - We developed and evaluated a convenient bedside clinical risk score for predicting 30-day mortality at presentation of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI was created as the simple arithmetic sum of independent predictors of mortality weighted according to the adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression analysis in the Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial (n=14 114). Mean 30-day mortality was 6.7%. Ten baseline variables, accounting for 97% of the predictive capacity of the multivariate model, constituted the TIMI risk score. The risk score showed a >40-fold graded increase in mortality, with scores ranging from 0 to >8 (P<0.0001); mortality was <1% among patients with a score of 0. The prognostic discriminatory capacity of the TIMI risk score was comparable to the full multivariable model (c statistic 0.779 versus 0.784). The prognostic performance of the risk score was stable over multiple time points (1 to 365 days). External validation in the TIMI 9 trial showed similar prognostic capacity (c statistic 0.746). Conclusions - The TIMI risk score for STEMI captures the majority of prognostic information offered by a full logistic regression model but is more readily used at the bedside. This risk assessment tool is likely to be clinically useful in the triage and management of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI.

AB - Background - Considerable variability in mortality risk exists among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Complex multivariable models identify independent predictors and quantify their relative contribution to mortality risk but are too cumbersome to be readily applied in clinical practice. Methods and Results - We developed and evaluated a convenient bedside clinical risk score for predicting 30-day mortality at presentation of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for STEMI was created as the simple arithmetic sum of independent predictors of mortality weighted according to the adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression analysis in the Intravenous nPA for Treatment of Infarcting Myocardium Early II trial (n=14 114). Mean 30-day mortality was 6.7%. Ten baseline variables, accounting for 97% of the predictive capacity of the multivariate model, constituted the TIMI risk score. The risk score showed a >40-fold graded increase in mortality, with scores ranging from 0 to >8 (P<0.0001); mortality was <1% among patients with a score of 0. The prognostic discriminatory capacity of the TIMI risk score was comparable to the full multivariable model (c statistic 0.779 versus 0.784). The prognostic performance of the risk score was stable over multiple time points (1 to 365 days). External validation in the TIMI 9 trial showed similar prognostic capacity (c statistic 0.746). Conclusions - The TIMI risk score for STEMI captures the majority of prognostic information offered by a full logistic regression model but is more readily used at the bedside. This risk assessment tool is likely to be clinically useful in the triage and management of fibrinolytic-eligible patients with STEMI.

KW - Coronary disease

KW - Mortality

KW - Myocardial infarction

KW - Prognosis

KW - Risk factors

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