Validating the predictors of outcomes after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer

Background: An assessment of surgical risk is essential for patient counseling and decision making, and it can provide rationale adjustment for patient populations as health care moves from a fee-for-service to a value-based reimbursement model. The modified Frailty Index (mFI) has been proposed as a risk-stratification tool for radical cystectomy (RC), and the objective of the current study was to validate this potential use of the mFI using an institutional cohort. Methods: A retrospective review of all patients who underwent RC for bladder cancer was conducted at the authors’ institution from 2012 to 2016. In addition to detailed clinicopathologic and treatment parameters, patients were categorized according to the mFI, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification. Covariates were analyzed to determine associations with 1-month complication rates (according to the Clavien-Dindo system), 3-month readmission rates, hospitalization length, and hospitalization costs. Results: In total, 346 patients were included in the analysis. The overall complication rate was 56.6%, the major (Clavien grade ≥3) complication rate was 19.4%, and the readmission rate was 27.9%. Receiver operating curve analysis demonstrated a weak association of all indices with major complications after RC: the area under the curve was 0.535 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.460-0.611) for the ASA classification; 0.565 (95% CI, 0.485-0.645) for the CCI score; and 0.551 (95% CI, 0.471-0.631) for the mFI. There were no significant differences in the rate of major complications when stratifying the results according to the mFI, CCI, or ASA class. Length of hospitalization and associated costs were correlated with mFI. Conclusions: Frailty was not associated with postoperative complications and provided little additional predictive ability over the ASA classification and the CCI score. Further research is required to identify patients who are likely to suffer significant complications after RC.