When policy meets the pedal: A reduction in motorcyclist fatalities following the implementation of a road traffic law in Lagos, Nigeria

Objective: The Lagos State Road Traffic Law of 2012 sought to curb reckless okada use and the objective of this study is to determine its impact on motorcyclist fatalities in Nigeria’s most densely populated state. This is the first study to date that analyzes the potential impact of the Law on motorcyclist fatalities across Lagos State. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed monthly motorcyclist fatalities in Lagos between January 2012 and December 2015. We analyzed the data using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software, and used Quantum GIS ver. 2.16.2 to create maps illustrating the spatial-epidemiological distribution of motorcyclist fatalities across Lagos’ health facilities. The data was collated into three eight-month periods for analysis (pre-intervention, immediate post-intervention, and sustained post-intervention). Period 1 was January to August 2012, Period 2 was September 2012 to April 2013, and Period 3 was May to December 2013. The data were compared in SPSS using the Welch’s ANOVA and Tanhame (post-hoc) tests with a 5% significance level. Results: Motorcyclist fatalities in Lagos fell by an average of 76% over the study period. Over 55% of the fatalities were recorded in five health facilities, located in an area of high road network density. The number of newly registered motorcycles also declined by an average of 69%. The Welch’s ANOVA yielded a statistically significant difference between the Periods’ means (p < 0.0001). The Tamhane post-hoc test showed significant differences in the mean decrease in fatalities between Period 1 and Period 2 (p = 0.002), and Period 1 and Period 3 (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: This study shows a significant decline in motorcyclist fatalities following the implementation of the Lagos State Road Traffic Law of 2012. A more comprehensive approach to data collection along with an updated law could contribute towards a sustainable reduction of motorcyclist mortality.